Rookie Valor Grid
“Passers displaying great courage in the face of danger, especially in battle”
This score evaluates a QB’s ability to perform during dropbacks when pressured AND / OR when dealing with a blitz.
Rookie AMO Grids analyze the most recent rookie class against all other rookies since 2015 (min. 200 dropbacks). Rookie AMO Scores inform which QBs have the best shot to succeed long-term based on their rookie year performance.
Rookies, for this exercise, are defined as any 1st year starter with 200+ dropbacks in that season. QBs do not need to accomplish this in the year they were drafted to qualify for this list (ex. Patrick Mahomes accomplished this in his second season). This data set also tracks “sit years” (years a QB spent sitting before their first 200-dropback season).
Valor Explained
“Metrics”
Data aligned to a specific performance concentration. For Valor, we’ve used metrics that analyze passing snaps when pressured AND/OR when facing a blitz
“Weights”
Trend-informed, AI-constructed adjustments applied to each metric, rooted in a bajillion (11) years and 56 QBs’ worth of rookie year performance data (AKA every rookie QB since 2015).
Metrics
Weights
- Dropback % (DB%)
- Adjusted Completion % (AC%)
- Average Depth of Target (ADoT)
- Big Time Throw % (Big Time Throw%)
- Turnover Worthy Play % (TWP%)
- QB Allowed Sack % (QAS%)
- Era Adjustment
- Passing Snaps
- Draft Age
- FBS Tier
- RAS
- Mobility
| Name | Team | FBS Tier | Draft Class | RAS | Age | Height | Rd Selected | All Pro | Pro Bowl | Playoff Starts | FBS Starts | 1st Year | Sit Years | Pre-Y1 Starts | Y1 Starts | Y1 Dropbacks | Valor DB% | Valor AC% | Valor ADoT | Valor BTT% | Valor TWP% | Allowed P2S% | Valor | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | HOU | Power 4 | 2017 | 9.24 | 21 | 6024 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 2017 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 241 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 10 | ||
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | Power 4 | 2017 | 8.22 | 21 | 6020 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 30 | 2018 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 722 | 2.8 | 6 | 4 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 9.5 | |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | Power 4 | 2020 | 9.52 | 21 | 6010 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 2021 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 556 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 9.3 | |
| Jordan Love | GB | Group of 6 | 2020 | 8.43 | 21 | 6036 | 1 | 4 | 35 | 2023 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 689 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 6 | 4.8 | 6 | 8.7 | |||
| Josh Allen | BUF | Group of 6 | 2018 | 9.67 | 21 | 6047 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 25 | 2018 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 396 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 8 | |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | Power 4 | 2020 | 9.7 | 22 | 6062 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 41 | 2020 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 653 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 7.7 | ||
| Anthony Richardson | IND | Power 4 | 2023 | 10 | 21 | 6042 | 1 | 14 | 2024 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 299 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 7.4 | ||||
| Dak Prescott | DAL | Power 4 | 2016 | 8.22 | 22 | 6024 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 36 | 2016 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 554 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 7.4 | |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | Power 4 | 2024 | 0 | 23 | 6032 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 55 | 2024 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 736 | 4 | 4.2 | 3 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 6.3 | ||
| Justin Fields | CHI | Power 4 | 2021 | 0 | 21 | 6026 | 1 | 22 | 2021 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 353 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 3 | 4.2 | 6.2 | ||||
| Mac Jones | NE | Power 4 | 2021 | 7.15 | 22 | 6025 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 2021 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 609 | 3 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 6.1 | ||
| Baker Mayfield | CLE | Power 4 | 2018 | 4.71 | 23 | 6005 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 48 | 2018 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 531 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 5 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 5.9 | ||
| Daniel Jones | NYG | Power 4 | 2019 | 8.12 | 21 | 6051 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 527 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 5.7 | |||
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | Power 4 | 2022 | 9.53 | 23 | 6032 | 1 | 51 | 2022 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 444 | 1.5 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 5.7 | ||||
| Sam Darnold | NYJ | Power 4 | 2018 | 5.61 | 20 | 6033 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 2018 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 460 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 5 | 5.6 | ||
| Jaxson Dart | NYG | Power 4 | 2025 | 0 | 21 | 6022 | 1 | 45 | 2025 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 413 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 5.5 | ||||
| Josh Rosen | ARI | Power 4 | 2018 | 6.88 | 21 | 6040 | 1 | 30 | 2018 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 453 | 3.4 | 5 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.5 | ||||
| CJ Stroud | HOU | Power 4 | 2023 | 0 | 21 | 6030 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 2023 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 618 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 5 | 5.4 | ||
| Jameis Winston | TB | Power 4 | 2015 | 4.25 | 21 | 6036 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 2015 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 598 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 5.4 | |||
| Caleb Williams | CHI | Power 4 | 2024 | 0 | 22 | 6011 | 1 | 2 | 35 | 2024 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 682 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 5.2 | |||
| Brett Hundley | GB | Power 4 | 2015 | 9.9 | 21 | 6032 | 5 | 39 | 2017 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 368 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 5.1 | ||||
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | Power 4 | 2021 | 0 | 21 | 6055 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 37 | 2021 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 668 | 2.4 | 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | ||
| DeShone Kizer | CLE | Power 4 | 2017 | 4.99 | 21 | 6042 | 2 | 24 | 2017 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 563 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 5 | ||||
| Sam Howell | WAS | Power 4 | 2022 | 0 | 21 | 6005 | 5 | 37 | 2023 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 712 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 4.9 | ||||
| Drew Lock | DEN | Power 4 | 2019 | 9.37 | 22 | 6036 | 2 | 47 | 2020 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 484 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 5.5 | 4.8 | ||||
| Mitch Trubisky | CHI | Power 4 | 2017 | 8.51 | 22 | 6021 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 2017 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 386 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 4.8 | ||
| Drake Maye | NE | Power 4 | 2024 | 0 | 21 | 6043 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 2024 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 422 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | |
| Gardner Minshew | JAX | Power 4 | 2019 | 5.93 | 22 | 6007 | 6 | 1 | 27 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 556 | 2.5 | 3 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 4.6 | |||
| Jacoby Brissett | NE | Power 4 | 2016 | 4.53 | 23 | 6036 | 3 | 30 | 2017 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 561 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 4.6 | ||||
| Marcus Mariota | TENNESSEE | Power 4 | 2015 | 9.94 | 21 | 6036 | 1 | 2 | 41 | 2015 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 424 | 3.4 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 2 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 4.6 | |||
| Bailey Zappe | NE | Group of 6 | 2022 | 5.97 | 23 | 6004 | 4 | 14 | 2023 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 247 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | ||||
| Trevor Siemian | DEN | Power 4 | 2015 | 0 | 23 | 6027 | 7 | 29 | 2016 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 530 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4 | 4.4 | ||||
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | Power 4 | 2024 | 9.75 | 23 | 6022 | 1 | 47 | 2025 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 303 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 3 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 6 | 4.2 | ||||
| JJ McCarthy | MIN | Power 4 | 2024 | 0 | 21 | 6024 | 1 | 29 | 2025 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 291 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 3.3 | 4.1 | ||||
| Joshua Dobbs | MIN | Power 4 | 2017 | 9.6 | 22 | 6033 | 4 | 37 | 2023 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 299 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 3.9 | ||||
| Kyler Murray | ARI | Power 4 | 2019 | 0 | 22 | 5101 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 620 | 1.5 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 3.9 | ||
| Shedeur Sanders | CLE | Power 4 | 2025 | 0 | 23 | 6014 | 5 | 24 | 2025 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 255 | 3.3 | 3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 3.9 | ||||
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | Power 4 | 2020 | 0 | 22 | 6000 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 2020 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 326 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.8 | ||
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | Group of 6 | 2021 | 0 | 21 | 6021 | 1 | 28 | 2021 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 444 | 6.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 2 | 3.9 | 3 | 3.8 | ||||
| Tyler Shough | NO | Power 4 | 2025 | 9.71 | 25 | 6047 | 2 | 31 | 2025 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 378 | 1.4 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 3.7 | ||||
| Cody Kessler | CLE | Power 4 | 2016 | 4.09 | 22 | 6012 | 3 | 41 | 2016 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 221 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | ||||
| Desmond Ridder | ATL | Group of 6 | 2022 | 9.62 | 22 | 6033 | 3 | 49 | 2023 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 439 | 1.5 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 3.6 | ||||
| Will Levis | TEN | Power 4 | 2023 | 0 | 23 | 6037 | 2 | 29 | 2023 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 292 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 3.4 | ||||
| Brock Purdy | SF | Power 4 | 2022 | 4.51 | 22 | 6005 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 47 | 2022 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 259 | 2.8 | 4 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | ||
| Joe Burrow | CIN | Power 4 | 2020 | 0 | 23 | 6034 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 2020 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 453 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 3.2 | ||
| Bryce Young | CAR | Power 4 | 2023 | 0 | 22 | 5101 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 2023 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 662 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.1 | |||
| Cam Ward | TEN | Power 4 | 2025 | 0 | 22 | 6020 | 1 | 38 | 2025 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 623 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 3 | 3 | ||||
| Bo Nix | DEN | Power 4 | 2024 | 0 | 24 | 6021 | 1 | 2 | 61 | 2024 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 674 | 2 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 2.9 | |||
| Jared Goff | LAR | Power 4 | 2016 | 6.09 | 21 | 6040 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 36 | 2016 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 234 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 2 | 3.1 | 2.8 | ||
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | Power 4 | 2018 | 0 | 21 | 6022 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 36 | 2018 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 243 | 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | |
| Davis Mills | HOU | Power 4 | 2021 | 6.58 | 22 | 6036 | 3 | 12 | 2021 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 435 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.4 | ||||
| Spencer Rattler | NO | Power 4 | 2024 | 4 | 23 | 6002 | 5 | 42 | 2024 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 264 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 2.3 | ||||
| Dwayne Haskins | WAS | Power 4 | 2019 | 3.47 | 22 | 6033 | 1 | 15 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 245 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 2 | ||||
| Aidan O'Connell | LVR | Power 4 | 2023 | 0 | 24 | 6033 | 4 | 31 | 2023 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 370 | 1.5 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | ||||
| Dillon Gabriel | CLE | Power 4 | 2025 | 0 | 24 | 5111 | 3 | 64 | 2025 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 217 | 3 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | ||||
| Mason Rudolph | PIT | Power 4 | 2018 | 4.06 | 22 | 6045 | 3 | 1 | 41 | 2019 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 308 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 4.1 | 1 |
“The People’s Metric”. No Takes. Just Data