Rookie Marksman Grid
“Skilled throwers, especially accurately and at long range”
This score evaluates a QB’s combined rookie year performance on combined medium attempts (10-19 yard throws) and deep attempts (20+ yard throws).
Rookie AMO Grids analyze the most recent rookie class against all other rookies since 2015 (min. 200 dropbacks). Rookie AMO Scores inform which QBs have the best shot to succeed long-term based on their rookie year performance.
Rookies, for this exercise, are defined as any 1st year starter with 200+ dropbacks in that season. QBs do not need to accomplish this in the year they were drafted to qualify for this list (ex. Patrick Mahomes accomplished this in his second season). This data set also tracks “sit years” (years a QB spent sitting before their first 200-dropback season).
Marksman Explained
“Metrics”
Data aligned to a specific performance concentration. For Marksman, we’ve compiled metrics that analyze a QB’s performance on throws 10+ air yards downfield.
“Weights”
Trend-informed, AI-constructed adjustments applied to each metric, rooted in a bajillion (11) years and 56 QBs’ worth of rookie year performance data (AKA every rookie QB since 2015).
Metrics
Weights
- Attempt % (Att%)
- Adjusted Completion % (AC%)
- Big Time Throw % (BTT%)
- Turnover Worthy Play % (TWP%)
- Era Adjustment
- Passing Snaps
- Draft Age
- FBS Tier
- RAS
- Mobility
| Name | Team | FBS Tier | Draft Class | RAS | Age | Height | Rd Selected | All Pro | Pro Bowl | Playoff Starts | FBS Starts | 1st Year | Sit Years | Pre-Y1 Starts | Y1 Starts | Y1 Dropbacks | MRKMN DB% | MRKMN AC% | MRKMN BTT% | MRKMN TWP% | MRKMN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | Power 4 | 2017 | 8.22 | 21 | 6020 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 30 | 2018 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 722 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 10 | |
| CJ Stroud | HOU | Power 4 | 2023 | 0 | 21 | 6030 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 2023 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 618 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 6 | 9 | ||
| Baker Mayfield | CLE | Power 4 | 2018 | 4.71 | 23 | 6005 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 48 | 2018 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 531 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 8.6 | ||
| Justin Fields | CHI | Power 4 | 2021 | 0 | 21 | 6026 | 1 | 22 | 2021 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 353 | 5 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 6 | 8.5 | ||||
| Deshaun Watson | HOU | Power 4 | 2017 | 9.24 | 21 | 6024 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 2017 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 241 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 5 | 8.2 | ||
| Jordan Love | GB | Group of 6 | 2020 | 8.43 | 21 | 6036 | 1 | 4 | 35 | 2023 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 689 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 8 | |||
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | Power 4 | 2020 | 9.52 | 21 | 6010 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 2021 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 556 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 5 | 7.9 | |
| Anthony Richardson | IND | Power 4 | 2023 | 10 | 21 | 6042 | 1 | 14 | 2024 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 299 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 7.5 | ||||
| JJ McCarthy | MIN | Power 4 | 2024 | 0 | 21 | 6024 | 1 | 29 | 2025 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 291 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 7.4 | ||||
| Jameis Winston | TB | Power 4 | 2015 | 4.25 | 21 | 6036 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 2015 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 598 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 7 | |||
| Dak Prescott | DAL | Power 4 | 2016 | 8.22 | 22 | 6024 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 36 | 2016 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 554 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 6.8 | |
| Josh Rosen | ARI | Power 4 | 2018 | 6.88 | 21 | 6040 | 1 | 30 | 2018 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 453 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 6.7 | ||||
| Mitch Trubisky | CHI | Power 4 | 2017 | 8.51 | 22 | 6021 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 2017 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 386 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4 | 5.5 | 6.7 | ||
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | Power 4 | 2022 | 9.53 | 23 | 6032 | 1 | 51 | 2022 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 444 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 6.6 | ||||
| Sam Darnold | NYJ | Power 4 | 2018 | 5.61 | 20 | 6033 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 2018 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 460 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 6.5 | ||
| Drew Lock | DEN | Power 4 | 2019 | 9.37 | 22 | 6036 | 2 | 47 | 2020 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 484 | 4 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 6.4 | ||||
| Josh Allen | BUF | Group of 6 | 2018 | 9.67 | 21 | 6047 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 25 | 2018 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 396 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 6.4 | |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | Power 4 | 2020 | 9.7 | 22 | 6062 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 41 | 2020 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 653 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.4 | ||
| Mac Jones | NE | Power 4 | 2021 | 7.15 | 22 | 6025 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 2021 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 609 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 6.4 | ||
| Jaxson Dart | NYG | Power 4 | 2025 | 0 | 21 | 6022 | 1 | 45 | 2025 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 413 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 6.3 | ||||
| Marcus Mariota | TENNESSEE | Power 4 | 2015 | 9.94 | 21 | 6036 | 1 | 2 | 41 | 2015 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 424 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 5.3 | 6.3 | |||
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | Power 4 | 2024 | 0 | 23 | 6032 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 55 | 2024 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 736 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 6.1 | ||
| Tyler Shough | NO | Power 4 | 2025 | 9.71 | 25 | 6047 | 2 | 31 | 2025 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 378 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 5.3 | 6 | ||||
| Gardner Minshew | JAX | Power 4 | 2019 | 5.93 | 22 | 6007 | 6 | 1 | 27 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 556 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 5.9 | |||
| Sam Howell | WAS | Power 4 | 2022 | 0 | 21 | 6005 | 5 | 37 | 2023 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 712 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 5 | 3.3 | 5.7 | ||||
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | Power 4 | 2021 | 0 | 21 | 6055 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 37 | 2021 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 668 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 5 | 5.6 | ||
| Daniel Jones | NYG | Power 4 | 2019 | 8.12 | 21 | 6051 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 527 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 5.4 | |||
| Jacoby Brissett | NE | Power 4 | 2016 | 4.53 | 23 | 6036 | 3 | 30 | 2017 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 561 | 2 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 5.3 | ||||
| Drake Maye | NE | Power 4 | 2024 | 0 | 21 | 6043 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 2024 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 422 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | |
| Bryce Young | CAR | Power 4 | 2023 | 0 | 22 | 5101 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 2023 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 662 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 5 | 5 | |||
| Joshua Dobbs | MIN | Power 4 | 2017 | 9.6 | 22 | 6033 | 4 | 37 | 2023 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 299 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 5 | ||||
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | Power 4 | 2024 | 9.75 | 23 | 6022 | 1 | 47 | 2025 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 303 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 5.4 | 5 | ||||
| Davis Mills | HOU | Power 4 | 2021 | 6.58 | 22 | 6036 | 3 | 12 | 2021 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 435 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 4.9 | ||||
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | Power 4 | 2018 | 0 | 21 | 6022 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 36 | 2018 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 243 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 4 | 3.7 | 4.9 | |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | Power 4 | 2019 | 0 | 22 | 5101 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 620 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 4.8 | ||
| Cam Ward | TEN | Power 4 | 2025 | 0 | 22 | 6020 | 1 | 38 | 2025 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 623 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 4.6 | ||||
| DeShone Kizer | CLE | Power 4 | 2017 | 4.99 | 21 | 6042 | 2 | 24 | 2017 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 563 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 4.6 | ||||
| Desmond Ridder | ATL | Group of 6 | 2022 | 9.62 | 22 | 6033 | 3 | 49 | 2023 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 439 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 4.6 | ||||
| Joe Burrow | CIN | Power 4 | 2020 | 0 | 23 | 6034 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 2020 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 453 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 5 | 4.6 | ||
| Brock Purdy | SF | Power 4 | 2022 | 4.51 | 22 | 6005 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 47 | 2022 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 259 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 4.4 | ||
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | Group of 6 | 2021 | 0 | 21 | 6021 | 1 | 28 | 2021 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 444 | 3.3 | 4 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 4.4 | ||||
| Caleb Williams | CHI | Power 4 | 2024 | 0 | 22 | 6011 | 1 | 2 | 35 | 2024 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 682 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 4.2 | |||
| Bo Nix | DEN | Power 4 | 2024 | 0 | 24 | 6021 | 1 | 2 | 61 | 2024 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 674 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 4 | 4.1 | |||
| Trevor Siemian | DEN | Power 4 | 2015 | 0 | 23 | 6027 | 7 | 29 | 2016 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 530 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.1 | ||||
| Bailey Zappe | NE | Group of 6 | 2022 | 5.97 | 23 | 6004 | 4 | 14 | 2023 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 247 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3 | 4 | ||||
| Will Levis | TEN | Power 4 | 2023 | 0 | 23 | 6037 | 2 | 29 | 2023 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 292 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 3 | 3.9 | ||||
| Dwayne Haskins | WAS | Power 4 | 2019 | 3.47 | 22 | 6033 | 1 | 15 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 245 | 2.9 | 2 | 2.9 | 4 | 3.6 | ||||
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | Power 4 | 2020 | 0 | 22 | 6000 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 2020 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 326 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.6 | ||
| Brett Hundley | GB | Power 4 | 2015 | 9.9 | 21 | 6032 | 5 | 39 | 2017 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 368 | 2 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 3.3 | ||||
| Cody Kessler | CLE | Power 4 | 2016 | 4.09 | 22 | 6012 | 3 | 41 | 2016 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 221 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3 | ||||
| Aidan O'Connell | LVR | Power 4 | 2023 | 0 | 24 | 6033 | 4 | 31 | 2023 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 370 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.8 | ||||
| Jared Goff | LAR | Power 4 | 2016 | 6.09 | 21 | 6040 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 36 | 2016 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 234 | 2 | 2.1 | 2 | 3.7 | 2.4 | ||
| Shedeur Sanders | CLE | Power 4 | 2025 | 0 | 23 | 6014 | 5 | 24 | 2025 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 255 | 2.2 | 3 | 1.7 | 2 | 1.9 | ||||
| Spencer Rattler | NO | Power 4 | 2024 | 4 | 23 | 6002 | 5 | 42 | 2024 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 264 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.9 | ||||
| Mason Rudolph | PIT | Power 4 | 2018 | 4.06 | 22 | 6045 | 3 | 1 | 41 | 2019 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 308 | 2.1 | 2 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | |||
| Dillon Gabriel | CLE | Power 4 | 2025 | 0 | 24 | 5111 | 3 | 64 | 2025 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 217 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1 |
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