Rookie AMO Grid_QB
“The People’s Metric”
Advanced Metrics Order, the first-ever “Future Performance Index” for NFL Draft Prospects.
Rookie AMO Grids analyze the most recent rookie class against all other rookies since 2015 (min. 200 dropbacks). Rookie AMO Scores inform which QBs have the best shot to succeed long-term based on their rookie year performance.
Rookies, for this exercise, are defined as any 1st year starter with 200+ dropbacks in that season. QBs do not need to accomplish this in the year they were drafted to qualify for this list (ex. Patrick Mahomes accomplished this in his second season). This data set also tracks “sit years” (years a QB spent sitting before their first 200-dropback season).
AMO Explained
“Performance Discipline”
Key skill-based areas of focus that inform future success. We’ve compiled the best advanced passing metrics available to nerds…err…fans and aligned them to three QB Performance Disciplines to assemble our QB Performance Scores.
“Weights”
Trend-informed, AI-constructed adjustments applied to each metric, rooted in a bajillion (11) years and 56 QBs’ worth of rookie year performance data (AKA every rookie QB since 2015).
Performance Disciplines
Weights
- Era Adjustment
- Passing Snaps
- Draft Age
- FBS Tier
- RAS
- Mobility
| Name | Team | FBS Tier | Draft Class | RAS | Age | Height | Rd Selected | All Pro | Pro Bowl | Playoff Starts | FBS Starts | 1st Year | Sit Years | Pre-Y1 Starts | Y1 Starts | Y1 Dropbacks | Std. Iss. Score | MRKMN | Valor | AMO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | Power 4 | 2017 | 8.22 | 21 | 6020 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 30 | 2018 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 722 | 10 | 10 | 9.5 | 9.8 | |
| Deshaun Watson | HOU | Power 4 | 2017 | 9.24 | 21 | 6024 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 2017 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 241 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 10 | 8.8 | ||
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | Power 4 | 2020 | 9.52 | 21 | 6010 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 2021 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 556 | 7 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 8 | |
| Jordan Love | GB | Group of 6 | 2020 | 8.43 | 21 | 6036 | 1 | 4 | 35 | 2023 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 689 | 7.4 | 8 | 8.7 | 8 | |||
| CJ Stroud | HOU | Power 4 | 2023 | 0 | 21 | 6030 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 2023 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 618 | 7.4 | 9 | 5.4 | 7.3 | ||
| Baker Mayfield | CLE | Power 4 | 2018 | 4.71 | 23 | 6005 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 48 | 2018 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 531 | 7 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 7.2 | ||
| Dak Prescott | DAL | Power 4 | 2016 | 8.22 | 22 | 6024 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 36 | 2016 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 554 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 6.9 | |
| Anthony Richardson | IND | Power 4 | 2023 | 10 | 21 | 6042 | 1 | 14 | 2024 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 299 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 6.8 | ||||
| Justin Fields | CHI | Power 4 | 2021 | 0 | 21 | 6026 | 1 | 22 | 2021 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 353 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 6.8 | ||||
| Justin Herbert | LAC | Power 4 | 2020 | 9.7 | 22 | 6062 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 41 | 2020 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 653 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 6.7 | ||
| Josh Allen | BUF | Group of 6 | 2018 | 9.67 | 21 | 6047 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 25 | 2018 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 396 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 8 | 6.3 | |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | Power 4 | 2024 | 0 | 23 | 6032 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 55 | 2024 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 736 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 6.1 | ||
| Mac Jones | NE | Power 4 | 2021 | 7.15 | 22 | 6025 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 2021 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 609 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 6.1 | ||
| Jaxson Dart | NYG | Power 4 | 2025 | 0 | 21 | 6022 | 1 | 45 | 2025 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 413 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 6 | ||||
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | Power 4 | 2022 | 9.53 | 23 | 6032 | 1 | 51 | 2022 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 444 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 5.9 | ||||
| Jameis Winston | TB | Power 4 | 2015 | 4.25 | 21 | 6036 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 2015 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 598 | 5.1 | 7 | 5.4 | 5.8 | |||
| Sam Darnold | NYJ | Power 4 | 2018 | 5.61 | 20 | 6033 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 2018 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 460 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 5.7 | ||
| Marcus Mariota | TENNESSEE | Power 4 | 2015 | 9.94 | 21 | 6036 | 1 | 2 | 41 | 2015 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 424 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 5.6 | |||
| JJ McCarthy | MIN | Power 4 | 2024 | 0 | 21 | 6024 | 1 | 29 | 2025 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 291 | 5 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 5.5 | ||||
| Mitch Trubisky | CHI | Power 4 | 2017 | 8.51 | 22 | 6021 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 2017 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 386 | 5 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 5.5 | ||
| Daniel Jones | NYG | Power 4 | 2019 | 8.12 | 21 | 6051 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 527 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.3 | |||
| Drew Lock | DEN | Power 4 | 2019 | 9.37 | 22 | 6036 | 2 | 47 | 2020 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 484 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 5.3 | ||||
| Josh Rosen | ARI | Power 4 | 2018 | 6.88 | 21 | 6040 | 1 | 30 | 2018 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 453 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 5.3 | ||||
| Sam Howell | WAS | Power 4 | 2022 | 0 | 21 | 6005 | 5 | 37 | 2023 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 712 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 5.1 | ||||
| Tyler Shough | NO | Power 4 | 2025 | 9.71 | 25 | 6047 | 2 | 31 | 2025 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 378 | 5.6 | 6 | 3.7 | 5.1 | ||||
| Gardner Minshew | JAX | Power 4 | 2019 | 5.93 | 22 | 6007 | 6 | 1 | 27 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 556 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 5 | |||
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | Power 4 | 2021 | 0 | 21 | 6055 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 37 | 2021 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 668 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 5 | ||
| Drake Maye | NE | Power 4 | 2024 | 0 | 21 | 6043 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 2024 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 422 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 4.9 | |
| Jacoby Brissett | NE | Power 4 | 2016 | 4.53 | 23 | 6036 | 3 | 30 | 2017 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 561 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | ||||
| Caleb Williams | CHI | Power 4 | 2024 | 0 | 22 | 6011 | 1 | 2 | 35 | 2024 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 682 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 4.7 | |||
| DeShone Kizer | CLE | Power 4 | 2017 | 4.99 | 21 | 6042 | 2 | 24 | 2017 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 563 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 5 | 4.4 | ||||
| Kyler Murray | ARI | Power 4 | 2019 | 0 | 22 | 5101 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 620 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 4.4 | ||
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | Power 4 | 2024 | 9.75 | 23 | 6022 | 1 | 47 | 2025 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 303 | 4.1 | 5 | 4.2 | 4.4 | ||||
| Brett Hundley | GB | Power 4 | 2015 | 9.9 | 21 | 6032 | 5 | 39 | 2017 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 368 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 4.2 | ||||
| Brock Purdy | SF | Power 4 | 2022 | 4.51 | 22 | 6005 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 47 | 2022 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 259 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 4.2 | ||
| Joe Burrow | CIN | Power 4 | 2020 | 0 | 23 | 6034 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 2020 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 453 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 4.1 | ||
| Joshua Dobbs | MIN | Power 4 | 2017 | 9.6 | 22 | 6033 | 4 | 37 | 2023 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 299 | 2.9 | 5 | 3.9 | 3.9 | ||||
| Trevor Siemian | DEN | Power 4 | 2015 | 0 | 23 | 6027 | 7 | 29 | 2016 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 530 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 3.9 | ||||
| Will Levis | TEN | Power 4 | 2023 | 0 | 23 | 6037 | 2 | 29 | 2023 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 292 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.9 | ||||
| Bailey Zappe | NE | Group of 6 | 2022 | 5.97 | 23 | 6004 | 4 | 14 | 2023 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 247 | 2.8 | 4 | 4.5 | 3.8 | ||||
| Bo Nix | DEN | Power 4 | 2024 | 0 | 24 | 6021 | 1 | 2 | 61 | 2024 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 674 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 3.8 | |||
| Bryce Young | CAR | Power 4 | 2023 | 0 | 22 | 5101 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 2023 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 662 | 3.3 | 5 | 3.1 | 3.8 | |||
| Desmond Ridder | ATL | Group of 6 | 2022 | 9.62 | 22 | 6033 | 3 | 49 | 2023 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 439 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 3.8 | ||||
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | Power 4 | 2018 | 0 | 21 | 6022 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 36 | 2018 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 243 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 3.8 | |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | Group of 6 | 2021 | 0 | 21 | 6021 | 1 | 28 | 2021 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 444 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.8 | ||||
| Cam Ward | TEN | Power 4 | 2025 | 0 | 22 | 6020 | 1 | 38 | 2025 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 623 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3 | 3.7 | ||||
| Davis Mills | HOU | Power 4 | 2021 | 6.58 | 22 | 6036 | 3 | 12 | 2021 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 435 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 3.7 | ||||
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | Power 4 | 2020 | 0 | 22 | 6000 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 2020 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 326 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.6 | ||
| Cody Kessler | CLE | Power 4 | 2016 | 4.09 | 22 | 6012 | 3 | 41 | 2016 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 221 | 3.6 | 3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | ||||
| Dwayne Haskins | WAS | Power 4 | 2019 | 3.47 | 22 | 6033 | 1 | 15 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 245 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2 | 3.1 | ||||
| Shedeur Sanders | CLE | Power 4 | 2025 | 0 | 23 | 6014 | 5 | 24 | 2025 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 255 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | ||||
| Aidan O'Connell | LVR | Power 4 | 2023 | 0 | 24 | 6033 | 4 | 31 | 2023 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 370 | 3 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 2.4 | ||||
| Jared Goff | LAR | Power 4 | 2016 | 6.09 | 21 | 6040 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 36 | 2016 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 234 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.2 | ||
| Spencer Rattler | NO | Power 4 | 2024 | 4 | 23 | 6002 | 5 | 42 | 2024 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 264 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.9 | ||||
| Mason Rudolph | PIT | Power 4 | 2018 | 4.06 | 22 | 6045 | 3 | 1 | 41 | 2019 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 308 | 2 | 1.6 | 1 | 1.5 | |||
| Dillon Gabriel | CLE | Power 4 | 2025 | 0 | 24 | 5111 | 3 | 64 | 2025 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 217 | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | 1 |
“The People’s Metric”. No Takes. Just Data